Pakistan, cade aereo vicino ad Islamabad
Islamabad, 28-07-2010
Un aereo passeggeri e' precipitato oggi nei pressi della capitale pachistana Islamabad. A bordo del velivolo viaggiavano oltre 150 persone, riferisce la televisione indiana.
L'aereo era partito da Karachi ed era diretto a Islamabad. Stando alle prime informazioni raccolte, il velivolo si e' schiantato sulle colline circostanti la capitale.
"A bordo c'erano 146 passeggeri e sei persone d'equipaggio. Stiamo raccogliendo informazioni, non abbiamo altri particolari", ha riferito Mubarik Shah, portavoce dell'autority per l'aviazione civile pakistana.

Pakistan: aereo passeggeri precipitato vicino Islamabad
A bordo viaggiavano 152 persone
28 luglio, 08:17

ISLAMABAD - Un aereo passeggeri è precipitato nei pressi della capitale pachistana Islamabad. A bordo del velivolo, un Airbus della compagnia privata Airblue, viaggiavano 152 persone. L'aereo era partito da Karachi ed era diretto a Islamabad. Stando alle prime informazioni raccolte, il velivolo si è schiantato sulle colline circostanti la capitale.

Elicotteri dell'esercito hanno raggiunto la zona dove il velivolo si è schiantato al suolo, non lontano da Islamabad. L'emittente GEO Tv ha mostrato le immagini precise del punto dell'impatto, che è avvenuto alle 10.45 locali (le 7.15 in Italia), dove una densa colonna di fumo bianco si leva nel cielo.

Le condizioni meteorologiche, riferiscono i media che seguono in diretta l'incidente, erano proibitive, con dense nubi e pioggia battente. Testimoni hanno riferito di aver visto il velivolo volare molto basso prima di schiantarsi al suolo nella zona di Margalla Hills. I soccorsi stanno avanzando verso il luogo segnalato per via terrestre con molte difficoltà, attraverso una vegetazione molto densa.

è una compagnia aerea pakistana se non erro

"Plane crashes in Pakistan capital on flight from Turkey

Reports are coming in that a plane has crashed in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.
Initial information suggests it was flying from Turkey to Islamabad via Karachi with more than 150 people on board.
Pakistani television is showing images of smoke arising from a hillside in the Margalla Hills in poor weather conditions.
A huge rescue effort has been launched. Details are still emerging.
"There were 146 passengers and six crewmen on board. We are gathering information. We have no more details," Mubarik Shah, spokesman of the state-run Civil Aviation Authority, told the Reuters news agency."

Crash: AirBlue A321 near Islamabad on Jul 28th 2010, impacted mountaineous terrain near the airport

An AirBlue Airbus A321-200, registration AP-BJB performing flight ED-202 from Karachi to Islamabad (Pakistan) with 146 passengers and 6 crew, was on approach to Islamabad in poor weather conditions when the airplane impacted the Margalla Hills about 10nm northwest of the airport. Radio Contact was lost at approx. 10:00L (05:00Z). Smoke is seen rising from the mountains.

The airline said, there are no survivors.

Metars:
PRN 280600Z 05016KT 4000 RA FEW01ST0 SCT030 OVC100 FEW030TCU 25/24 Q1006.8
OPRN 280500Z 09018KT 3500 RA SCT010 SCT030 OVC100 FEW030 25/24 Q1006.9
OPRN 280400Z 05016KT 3500 SCT010 SCT030 BKN100 FEW030TCU 29/24 1006.7
OPRN 280300Z 05016KT 2000 RA FEW015ST SCT040 BKN100 FEW030TCU 24/23 1006.5
OPRN 280200Z 05016KT 2500 DZ FEW015ST SCT040 BKN100 FEW030TCU 24/23 1005.9
OPRN 280100Z 05018KT 4000 DZ FEW015ST SCT040 BKN100 FEW030TCU 24/23 1005.4
OPRN 280000Z 05018KT 4000 DZ FEW015ST SCT040 BKN100 FEW030TCU 24/23 1005.4

28 July 2010

Airbus regrets to confirm that an Airbus A321 operated by airblue was involved in an accident shortly after 9.45 am local time. The aircraft was operating a scheduled service, Flight ED 202, from Karachi to Islamabad, Pakistan.

The aircraft involved in the accident, registered under AP-BJB, was MSN (Manufacturer Serial Number) 1218, initially delivered from the production line in 2000.

The aircraft is leased to airblue in January 2006. The aircraft had accumulated approximately 34,000 flight hours in some 13,500 flights. It was powered by IAE V2533 engines. At this time no further factual information is available.

In line with international convention, Airbus will provide full technical assistance to the Authorities of Pakistan, who will be responsible for the investigation into the accident.

The A321 is a twin-engine single-aisle seating 185 passengers in a standard two-class configuration. The first A321 entered service in January 1994. To date, some 610 A321’s are in service with nearly 70 operators.

The entire fleet has accumulated some 10.6 million flight hours in some 5.8 million flights. The A321 is part of the A320 Family which has achieved over 50 million take offs and landings since the first model, the A320, entered commercial service in 1988. Today, more than 4,300 aircraft are in operations to some 310 customers and operators worldwide.

Airbus will make further factual information available as soon as the details have been confirmed.

The concerns and sympathy of the Airbus employees go to the families, friends and loved ones affected by the accident of Flight ED 202.

http://www.airbus.com/crisis/index.html

Key factors for Pakistan crash probe
As Pakistan authorities launch an investigation into the crash of the Airblue Airbus A321 near Islamabad, Jim Ferguson, an aviation expert based in Aberdeen, Scotland, discusses some of the possible scenarios.

Bad weather
"Until the plane's 'black box' flight recorders are found, we simply will not know what caused this crash. There are so many unanswered questions.
It could be a combination of many things. But from the reports I have seen, the weather could be the villain of the piece. If you've ever been in monsoon rain, you know how serious it is.
But whatever the weather, this is an accident which should not have happened. Monsoons happen every year in Pakistan - they are nothing new to aviation.
So my first question is: Was this plane trying to land in weather conditions which were below the agreed minimum for the aircraft? And did the pilot have any other option?
It would have been up to the crew to make a decision about whether or not to land. Because no matter the weather, the airport would have remained open.
We need to know what the actual weather was at the time of the crash. What was the visibility? Was there fog? Was there a cross wind? Was there any wind shear or nasty microbursts (downdrafts) hidden in the monsoon?
And it would be useful to know what Airblue's minimum conditions for landing were. I would guess a visibility of half a mile and a cloud base of 500ft. But that is a guess.
Throughout the journey, the crew should have been given regular weather updates. Each time they have to decide - is it worth continuing?
We don't know what information the crew had been given. But the Pakistani authorities will be wanting to know why the aircraft took off from Karachi in the first place.
Were the crew unwise to do so? And were they unwise to continue?"

Fuel shortage
"The bad weather in Islamabad begs the question: Did the aircraft have enough fuel to divert to another airport?
A plane should always carry enough fuel to reach its destination, plus an allowance for circling and enough spare fuel to reach a nominated alternative airport.
Karachi to Islamabad is around two hours flying time, so the pilot may not have had enough fuel for a round trip. But they should certainly have had enough to divert."
Navigational error
"Was this a navigational error by the pilot?
Some reports indicate the plane may have been circling before an attempt to land. If so, was this its first attempt?
I have to assume that it was. Because I haven't heard any reports of an overshoot.
It is possible that the plane had already made an approach, taken a look and thought - I don't fancy that, and gone for another circle. But nobody has said anything yet about an aborted landing procedure.
If you are going to circle for a while, there is a safety height below which you should not descend. Usually it is the height of the tallest nearby hill, plus a couple of thousand feet for clearance. Was the plane below that height? And if so, why?
To help the pilot navigate, we know there are a couple of navigation beacons around Islamabad. But we do not know if there is an instrument landing system. If there is, was it working? Was it affected by the heavy monsoon rain?"

Technical failure
"Was there a problem with the plane's navigational systems?
The Airbus is a complicated aeroplane and it doesn't let people down. Not often anyway. Everything should work, no matter the weather.
To measure your altitude, the plane has a barometric altimeter, which you set to local pressure. You should also have a radar altimeter, and a ground proximity warning system (GPWS) which tells you 'Pull up. Pull up'.
When it says that, you put the throttles forward and climb like a homesick angel. You've got to otherwise you're going to wrap yourself around a hill.
The system is quite unreal. You can input the details of your whole flight when you take off - all the beacons and the heights you want to do - and sit back and let the plane do it for you. But in bad weather like that, most guys would be going for it hands on.
As for the airline's safety record, this appears to be the first major accident that Airblue have had."

L'esperto aeronautico della BBC ha prodotto delle IPOTESI verosimili sulle possibili cause dell'incidente, che riporto. A questo link BBC c'è anche un video che mostra non tanto le immagini dei resti nella zona del disastro, tecnicamente inutili, dato che si tratta solo di un buco nel terreno, quanto da un'idea dell'orografia della zona e delle pessime condizioni meteo. Personalmente trovo anche interessante una parte di commento del corrispondente, che in un inglese approssimativo, spiega che quella è normalmente una no-fly zone.

e tutto questo come me lo spiegate???

e tutto questo come me lo spiegate???
questi airbus cascano uno dopo l'altro come sacchi di patate... su 4300 in attività almeno 20 ne sono caduti....
non sono forse troppi?

no siccome qui si dice che "La paura sta nella testa"
io invece ho proprio paura di questo...

sarebbe vero se non accadessero queste cose...
ma queste cose purtroppo accadono...
ho gia letto il libro di evangelisti...
ed ero propenso a prenotare un volo seppur a corto raggio per vincere la paura...
ma poi arrivano queste notizie...

...
Officials say investigators are still looking for the flight data recorder, denying earlier reports that the "black box" had been found.

The BBC's Aleem Maqbool in Islamabad says that many flights on the popular route from Karachi to Islamabad have been cancelled in recent days because of the bad weather.

...

Airblue spokesman Raheel Ahmed told reporters that the crash had been "an extremely tragic incident" and the plane had no history of technical problems.

It was leased by Airblue in January 2006 and had accumulated about 34,000 flight hours.

Sono curioso di sapere se l'aereo fosse sotto vettoramento radar.

The CAA reported later, that at the time of the arrival runway 12 was active, the airplane was performing an ILS approach to runway 30 circling runway 12. Initial investigation results suggest the airplane was flying too low in poor weather conditions and low visibility and incorrectly turned too late.

On Jul 29th the CAA said, that the airplane was required to remain within a 5nm circle around the airport for the visual circling, however was about 9.5nm from the airport when the tower advised the crew about being outside the protected area and instructed the crew to immediately turn left. The crew acknowledged - this was their last radio transmission.

Islamabad (OPRN) features an ILS Category 1 for runway 30. Circling area has been assigned north of the aerodrome requiring left hand circuits for runway 12 and right hand circuits for runway 30. An ILS approach to runway 30 circling runway 12 required the aircraft to turn right (to the north) for the downwind and subsequently turn back onto final for runway 12.

Come riportato da AVheral oggi:

La cosa peggiore che puoi fare con brutto tempo.
Fai un avvicinamento strumentale per una pista, però è in uso l'altra che in genere non è dotata di avvicinamento strumentale.
Per cui ad una distanza X che dipende dall'aereo che voli, rompi l'avvicinamento e fai un sottovento a vista con virata base. Questo è tipico nei paesi poco evoluti. Il circling è brutto già di suo, in cattive condizioni meteo può diventare molto complicato.
Nei paesi evoluti il circling si autorizza solo per vento forte. Con nubi basse o bassa visibilità non si autorizza mai.

Perchè non c'è alternativa. Se non hai carburante per l'alternato... ci provi.

c'è qualche buonanima che potrebbe spiegare in parole "meno tecniche"
cosa potrebbe essere successo???